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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.